According to a statistical study by the American company Gracenote, Belgium and England have the most chances of winning the Euro this summer. France comes in third position.
The France team is the reigning world champion, it has an incredible workforce on paper, but according to Gracenote, it is not the number 1 favorite of the Euro. The American company has just published a statistical study before the start of the tournament, which places the Blues in third position among the most serious candidates for the title.
According to Gracenote, Belgium and England are ahead, with a 14% chance of winning the competition. France follows with 12%, then come Spain (10%), Italy (9%), and Portugal (8%), defending champion. Note that Denmark (7%) is ahead of Germany (6%) or the Netherlands (5%).
2.7% chance of seeing a France-Belgium final
How did the company arrive at these estimates? She actually relied on her own ranking of nations – using an Elo system, like in chess – to get a win, draw, or loss percentage for each match, and then she simulated the competition a million times. And out of this million times, Belgium has most often finished with the title.
The simulation also allowed Gracenote to draw up the list of the most probable finals: England-Belgium comes first (2.9%), followed by England-Italy (2.8%), Denmark-Belgium ( 2.8%), France-Belgium (2.7%), then England-France (2.6%).
As RTBF points out, these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, since before the 2018 World Cup, Gracenote had designated Brazil as the big favorite (24%), ahead of Spain (11%), Germany ( 9%) and Argentina (9%). Four teams … who hadn’t even seen the semi-finals.