With the Covid-19 crisis and a Super League project now on “stand by”, the transfer market should calm down. But if the biggest transfers should become scarce … it could only be temporary. The overall decrease in the amounts spent may be felt more at the lower level. Explanations with a sports economist and an agent.
After years of madness and endless outbreaks, will the transfer window experience a brutal lull? “Signings like Haaland or Mbappé? Without the Super League, this will not happen,” said Cadena Ser Wednesday night Florentino Perez, president of Real and instigator of the Super League, whose future is now uncertain. “In this pandemic situation, it will not happen, neither for Real nor for any other club. It will not happen, believe me,” he insisted.
According to the president of Madrid, the Super League, a semi-closed league which would have brought more money to the clubs involved in the competition and for which 12 had initially signed, was the only solution to “offset the economic losses” of the year.
Transfers to 100 million “much more constrained”
“We are clearly in a market on the decline. On these major transfers, which could exceed 100 million euros, it will be much more constrained. Even the very big clubs will be very careful about the assembly of files”, confirms the agent Bruno Satin, interviewed by RMC Sport.
Matthias Seidel, founder and co-owner of Transfermarkt, went in the same direction a few weeks ago: “I believe that we have reached the pinnacle on the amount of transfers, he judged at our microphone. The pandemic has proven to to many executives but also to fans that the football show model was outdated and only money was at the forefront for many, which needs to change. ”
A temporary drop?
But according to Vincent Chaudel, sports economist and founder of the Observatoire du sport business, this decline will only be “temporary”, because “the global interest in top players will not collapse overnight”, justifies he does. “We will find an economy in football, but perhaps not at a comparable level right away,” adds the economist.
A fall that should especially concern the middle floor
The drop in the amount of transfers should be more obvious at the middle floors. “This goes for all transfers around 50 and 60 million euros, for very good players but who are not stars either. For them, the amounts will be resized very, very seriously. There will be a very large number of free players on the market “, explains Bruno Satin.
In the words of Vincent Chaudel, this will also concern players less bankable, “the average Ligue 1 or Ligue 2 player, who costs too much for what he is able to generate”.
“Almost all French clubs will have to sell before buying”
This phenomenon should affect all European championships, but the French case will be particular. “For everyone, there was the first blade of Covid-19. We have the second blade of Mediapro,” laments agent Bruno Satin. The group withdrew in December from the broadcasting of the League and Ligue 2, causing a very great loss of income for the clubs. “Almost all French clubs will have to sell before buying. In clubs in the first half of the ranking, sports directors have already been asked to reduce the payroll by 30%,” he continues.
The 12 clubs involved in the Super League project could on the one hand have difficulty recruiting because of their financial problems, but Vincent Chaudel puts forward another explanation: their tarnished image. “For a Mbappé, who is very careful with his image, going to one of the 12 dissident clubs is to attach an image of a mercenary,” he explains. The summer promises to be a little less hot than usual …